Russia and Belarus recently carried out large military drills involving nuclear weapons, raising fresh concerns across Europe and Ukraine. The exercises, which took place earlier this week, marked the first time Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko directly participated in preparations linked to Russia’s tactical and strategic nuclear forces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko supervised the drills together from Tuesday to Thursday. The exercises stretched from Eastern Europe to the Pacific region and included missile launchers, warships, submarines, and military aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
During the drills, Lukashenko claimed the two countries were not threatening anyone but warned they were fully prepared to defend their territories if necessary. Analysts, however, believe the military activity sends a strong political message to the West and Ukraine.
Growing Nuclear Concerns
Putin stated that Russia must improve the readiness of both tactical and strategic nuclear forces. He also said Moscow would continue learning from its ongoing war in Ukraine.
As part of the exercises, Russia launched a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. The missile reportedly travelled thousands of kilometres across Russian territory during the test.
Military experts say the sudden scale of the drills has created anxiety internationally. Some analysts described the situation as unusual and potentially linked to larger geopolitical developments.
Russia has also reportedly supplied Belarus with upgraded Su-25 fighter jets and Iskander-M missile systems, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Reports suggest some nuclear weapons may already be stored at military facilities inside Belarus.
Belarus and Russia Strengthen Military Ties
Belarus has remained one of Russia’s closest allies for years. After Russia launched its full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory as a route for attacks on northern Ukraine and the capital Kyiv.
Later that year, Belarus changed its constitution through a referendum, officially allowing nuclear weapons to be stationed inside the country. In 2023, Putin confirmed that Russia had deployed tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
Russia argues that this move is similar to the United States placing nuclear weapons in NATO countries across Europe. However, tactical nuclear weapons are difficult to monitor because they are not covered by major arms-control agreements between Washington and Moscow.
The latest drills also took place just before a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden, leading some observers to believe the timing was intentional.
Fears of a New Attack on Ukraine
Ukraine has warned that Russia could be preparing for another offensive from Belarusian territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently accused Moscow of trying to pull Belarus deeper into the war.
However, some experts believe the number of Russian troops currently stationed in Belarus is too small for a major new attack. They also say Lukashenko understands the risks of becoming directly involved in the conflict.
In 2022, Russian forces entering Ukraine through Belarus failed to capture Kyiv and were eventually forced to retreat. Since then, Belarus has mainly served as a launch point for Russian missiles and drones rather than direct ground attacks.
Political Pressure and Economic Problems
Some analysts believe the military exercises are more about political pressure than actual war plans. According to experts, Russia and Belarus may be using nuclear threats to intimidate Western countries and influence negotiations.
At the same time, Belarus faces growing economic difficulties. Western sanctions imposed over Lukashenko’s support for Russia have badly affected the country’s exports, especially fertilisers, fuel products, and timber.
Recently, Lukashenko has shown signs of trying to improve relations with the United States and reduce international isolation. He has also hinted that he is open to talks with Ukraine.
Speaking during the drills, Lukashenko said Belarus does not want to be directly dragged into the war and added that he would be willing to meet Zelenskyy for discussions if needed.
Even so, experts warn there is still a risk Belarus could become more involved in the conflict if tensions continue to rise.
