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The Financial Times reported that if the Republican Party loses the midterm elections, Trump may not only be angry, but also intervene and refuse to face Congress on the election results, while retaining considerable diplomatic authority.
United States November 3midterm elections Entering the countdown,republican party I fear he will not only lose control of the House of Representatives, but may also lose control of the Senate, leaving the Presidenttrump He became a useless President in the remaining two years of his tenure. The Financial Times analyzed that Trump may not seek bipartisan cooperation after losing congressional support like previous presidents. Instead, he can become an “angry duck” and will not hesitate to provoke Congress. He could also ask House Speaker Johnson to prevent new members from being sworn in, which could lead to a constitutional crisis. Even if the Republican Party loses the election, Trump will still enjoy great authority in foreign affairs, and US-China relations may be the only diplomatic area where he maintains his established line.
As the war in Iran continues and diesel prices rise, Trump’s approval rating continues to decline, and is now well below the Republican Party’s overall support. Once there is a change in Congress, the Democratic Party will be able to control the Trump administration through investigations, subpoenas, and legislative processes, making it difficult to advance the remaining policy agenda.
However, after interviewing people inside and outside the Trump administration, as well as politicians and constitutional scholars from both parties, the Financial Times found that almost no one believes Trump will obediently accept the role of a lame-duck president. Chris Christie, the former Republican governor of New Jersey, put it bluntly: “He is more likely to become an angry duck.” They are more likely to choose a one-on-one conflict rather than compromise with the Congress.
Ian Basin, director of the advocacy group Protect Democracy, analyzed that Trump could interfere in the election through three means of “fraud, interference, and denial”, including spreading claims that the Democratic Party cheated, intimidating voters, and interfering in the election process. However, Trump’s previous efforts to obtain state voter rolls and control the Postal Service have been blocked by the judiciary.
Bassin explained that the third move is to “deny the election results”. If the Democratic Party wins the House of Representatives with only a slight advantage in seats, Trump may ask Speaker Johnson to prevent some Democratic candidates from being sworn in on January 3 next year on the grounds that the election results are disputed, which could prevent the Democratic Party from gaining control of the House of Representatives and even lead to a constitutional crisis.
Johnson & Johnson recently claimed that some methods of election fraud were so hidden that they could not be proven. However, if Trump wants to overturn the election results, he will still need cooperation within the Republican Party. Once the Republican Party loses badly, some people in the party may begin to distance themselves from Trump.
Even if he loses control of Congress, Trump still has broad authority over foreign policy.
Democratic Senator Chris Coons is concerned that Trump may be more willing to take risks in foreign affairs. Trump tried to negotiate with Iran’s president last year but received no response and launched airstrikes on Iran a few days later, highlighting the unpredictable nature of his foreign policy.
However, the Financial Times analyzed that US–China relations may be the only diplomatic area in which Trump maintains his established line.
Trump has met Chinese President Xi Jinping twice this year. The two sides are expected to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 summit in Florida, United States, in December. If it goes ahead, Trump would become the first US president to meet a Chinese leader four times in a year.
Trump attaches great importance to his meeting with Xi Jinping, but his pursuit of stable US-China relations could also complicate other international issues, a former official said. For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed holding a trilateral summit with Trump and Xi Jinping in Shenzhen to discuss the Ukrainian issue, but Ukrainian President Zelensky will not attend.
If the Democratic Party wins the midterm elections, the fight for a Republican presidential successor in 2028 could also intensify ahead of schedule. However, Trump has so far shown little interest in appointing his successor. The Financial Times described that it is hard to imagine that Trump, who has always hated being called a “loser”, would become more moderate after a major defeat.
Summary FAQ
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Because if the Republican Party loses control of Congress, Trump cannot seek bipartisan cooperation. Instead, he will opt for direct confrontation with Congress, and even use the power of the presidency to prevent new members from taking office, thereby further escalating political conflict.
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The article noted that he may adopt three strategies of “fraud, interference and denial”, which include spreading claims of Democratic fraud, intimidating voters, interfering in the election process, and finally denying the results and preventing some elected candidates from being sworn in.
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Even if he loses control of Congress, Trump will still have broad authority over foreign policy and may be more willing to take risks; However, US-China relations may be one of the few areas where he maintains his established line, as he still values his meeting with Xi Jinping.
