AI summary
Summary of article:
After the decline in US semiconductor and AI concept stocks, the market turned its attention to next week’s financial reports, midterm elections and employment data, and evaluated whether AI financing and capacity expansion can support valuations.
US chip stocks fell heavily on Friday,intel Outlook Eclipse, Plusanthropic It may not be able to obtain an investment-grade rating after listing, deepening doubts about AI financing and returns. Feiban fell 7.2%, Intel fell nearly 29%, TSMC ADR fell nearly 6%, and the semiconductor market next week is still not optimistic. Here are the five most notable international news ahead of the markets opening next week:
The S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Friday, falling below its 100-day moving average.Nasdaq Fell 2.9%, its biggest one-day decline since June. S&P also changed Meta’s AA-rating outlook to negative due to rising AI spending and financial pressures.
Intel’s weakness is partly due to PC demand and factory crashes, and doesn’t necessarily represent an overall slowdown in AI demand. Financial reports from AMD, Qualcomm and Apple next week, as well as midterm election and employment reports, will again test market confidence.
Kioxia estimates operating profit for the quarter will be 2 trillion yen, lower than the market expectation of 2.35 trillion yen, and NAND selling prices may be the same as last quarter. Although production capacity in 2027 has been sold out, and more than half of the expected shipments in 2028 are guaranteed by long-term contracts, the market is still worried that price increases and profit growth will not be sustainable. Kioxia’s U.S. trading ADRs fell 17%, and SanDisk, which reported better-than-expected earnings, also fell 13.5%. Even Sandisk, which had a better-than-expected financial report, was pulled down 13.5%.
AI industry players face strict funding oversight. Anthropic may not be able to obtain investment-grade ratings immediately after listing, and debt costs may increase; OpenAI reduced its fundraising target from US$30 billion to about US$20 billion, and its valuation dropped to US$1.25 trillion; S&P maintained Meta’s AA- rating, but changed its outlook to negative. All three companies have been unable to raise money, but the market is more concerned about whether revenues and cash can support massive AI spending. Funding conditions will affect subsequent expansion.
Liu Yangwei, chairman of Hon Hai, said in an interview with CNBC that the demand for AI has not decreased significantly and the production capacity is fully booked for at least the next year and a half. The global AI server market share is currently about 40%, and may increase to 45% next year, and is expected to reach 50% in the next few years. Hon Hai will expand its manufacturing footprint in the United States and will initially prioritize the production of high-margin products such as AI cabinets and data center equipment. He estimates that AI infrastructure will account for 60% to 65% of revenues in three to five years, but emphasizes that “over-investment will kill the company” and expansion will still have to tightly control expenditures.
The US midterm elections on November 3 will determine Trump’s administrative standing over the past two years. The high cost of living has put off some supporters, and Democrats are fighting to retake both houses of Congress, while Republicans are relying on their fundraising advantages and vote-driving to maintain their majority. In addition to paying attention to the impact of the change of guard in Congress on tariffs, taxes and security cooperation, Taiwan should also not ignore how elections in Alaska, Texas and Arizona will affect natural gas cooperation, technology investment and water and electricity costs. Changes in Congress will not necessarily lead to changes in policy, but increases and decreases in the power of Washington and the states will affect Taiwan’s deployment in the United States.
Summary FAQ
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Feihan fell 7.2% in a single day, Intel fell nearly 29%, and TSMC’s ADR also fell, which shows that the market’s confidence in chip stocks has weakened significantly; The next financial reports of AMD, Qualcomm and Apple will become important validation.
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Anthropic may find it difficult to obtain an investment-grade rating so soon after its listing, and OpenAI’s fundraising targets and valuation have also been revised downwards; Additionally, the meta outlook has turned negative, indicating that the market is more concerned about whether AI revenues, cash flows, and expenses match up.
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The midterm elections will determine Trump’s governance position in the second half of his term, and may affect tariffs, taxes, and security cooperation; The results in Alaska, Texas and Arizona will also affect the cost of natural gas, technology investment and electricity.
