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Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and West Texas oil price forecasts due to growing concerns about geopolitical risks and supply disruptions, and believes the oil market could still see high risk premiums in 2027.
Goldman Sachs Plateauoil price Forecasts predict Brent oil prices will reach US$105 per barrel in December 2026, up from the previous forecast of US$90.
Goldman Sachs noted in a report on November 1 that the risk of a shortage in crude oil supply is substantial, which could continue to add a higher risk premium to short-term oil prices.
Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to US$88 from US$80 per barrel. In terms of West Texas oil prices, the price is projected to average US$94 per barrel in December 2026, and the average price in 2027 will be US$78.
Dan Struyven, Yulia Zestkova Grigsby and other analysts noted in the report: “There is a high risk of crude oil supply disruption due to conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, as well as growing global geopolitical divisions.”
He said: “Because it is almost impossible to predict when and where supply will be disrupted, our current base case already includes an estimate of global supply disruption of 1 million barrels per day in 2027.” Goldman Sachs also noted that overall, there is still a risk that oil prices will exceed the above forecast.
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In a report on November 1, Goldman Sachs revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for December 2026 to US$105 from the original US$90 per barrel, reflecting growing market concerns about supply contraction and risk premiums.
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Goldman Sachs reported that conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the sharpening of global geopolitical divisions, increase the risk of disruption in crude oil supplies; Because the timing and location of disruptions are difficult to predict, oil prices still have room to rise.
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Goldman Sachs raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to US$88 per barrel from US$80, while West Texas crude forecast the average price of US$94 in December 2026 and US$78 in 2027, indicating that the overall forecast has been revised upward together.
