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Gray, the former White House official, said frequent meetings between Trump and Xi would help maintain stability but would not lead to significant changes in US-Taiwan relations, and predicted that Washington could also announce arms sales to Taiwan after the G20 this year.
Trump and Xi have held summit meetings twice this year and two more meetings are expected by the end of the year. Former White House official Gray analyzed today that the U.S.-China leaders’ dialogue is important for maintaining stability, and he does not think it will bring any major changes to U.S.-Taiwan relations; He predicted that sometime this year we would seeWashington re-announcearms sales Most likely after the G20 summit.
Alexander Gray, who served as White House National Security Council Chief of Staff during Trump 1.0, was interviewed by China Central News Agency after attending a think tank forum in Washington today. As for the two meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year, Gray said that from Trump’s perspective, meetings of U.S.-China leaders are important to maintaining stability, buying time for the United States to increase resilience, and continuing to improve Washington’s ability to withstand Chinese coercion in the medium and long term.
“I don’t expect this to lead to any significant change in relations between the United States and Taiwan,” Gray said.
After summits in Beijing in May and Washington in September, Trump and Xi are expected to meet again at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China in November and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, Florida in December. The outside world is concerned about the impact of frequent meetings between Trump and Xi on US arms sales to Taiwan.
Regarding the $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which has not yet been approved by the Trump administration, Gray said today at a symposium at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, that its form may be somewhat different from the large-scale arms sales initially discussed. It may be divided into several batches of small arms sales, or it may be carried out over a longer period.
Gray is currently the CEO of American Global Strategies, a geopolitical consulting firm. He pointed out that another thing that needs to be considered is the systemic problems in the US defense industrial base, which not only affects the supply of ammunition related to Iran’s war and the Indo-Pacific region, but also faces problems in providing key ammunition and defense capabilities to partners such as Taiwan.
Michael Cunningham, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, also present at the same forum, said he was more concerned about U.S. industrial production capacity and the ability to actually deliver weapons.
Kong Mingshang believes that the United States will approve this batch of arms sales to Taiwan and hopes to announce it at the end of this year or early next year. If it takes place before the Trump-Xi summit in November or December, Beijing may cancel the meeting. However, it is also possible that Trump will decide that it is in his best interest to approve arms sales before these summits. He has always been unpredictable in his behavior, and “anything can happen.”
Gray told reporters after the meeting that based on personal speculation, he believed the United States would announce another arms sale to Taiwan sometime this year, perhaps at or after the G20 summit.
He also said Trump likes to be unpredictable, “especially to keep our opponents guessing as to what he’s going to do next.”
Additionally, the US midterm elections will be held on November 3, with at-large re-elections for 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate. Regarding whether the midterm election results may affect the US Congress’s support for Taiwan, Gray believes that in the near future, the relationship between the US Congress and Taiwan will still be very strong.
He explained that the most important thing is education to ensure that newly elected members of Congress understand the strategic value of Taiwan to the United States. “Get this communications education done quickly, so that in 10 to 15 years, we don’t have to suffer the consequences of members of Congress not paying attention to this relationship.”
Summary FAQ
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Gray believes the Trump-Xi meeting will be important for maintaining stability between China and the United States and will help the United States buy time to strengthen its resilience, but he does not expect it to lead to any major changes in US-Taiwan relations.
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Gray speculated that the United States will announce another arms sale to Taiwan sometime this year, possibly after the G20 summit, and that it may be divided into several batches of smaller-scale cases and completed in stages.
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The article points out that there are systemic problems in the US defense industrial base, which affect not only the supply of ammunition for Iran’s war, but also the actual production capacity and delivery capabilities of the weapons needed for the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan.
