AI summary
Summary of article:
Heavy investments in AI are being re-examined by capital markets. Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta are all facing pressure to tighten rating, valuation and financing conditions, indicating whether revenues can support expenses has become increasingly important.
The huge investments made by AI industry players are facing more stringent financial oversight.anthropic It may not be able to obtain an investment-grade rating immediately after listing, and OpenAI lowers its valuation and fundraising target.meta Staples & Poor’s revised the rating outlook to negative. From startups to technology giants, the market is concerned about whether revenues and cash can support continued expansion of spending.
The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Blackstone has informed investors involved in Anthropic’s latest $63 billion chip financing that the company may achieve a higher non-investment grade rating earlier after its listing, changing its previous expectation that it would achieve investment grade by the end of the year.
Anthropic plans to invest more than US$800 billion in building computing infrastructure by 2045. An investment-grade rating helps reduce borrowing costs; If this is not achieved, investment-restricted insurance and pension funds may find it more difficult to attract funds, and will have to rely on the support of highly rated suppliers.
In the latest North Star financing case, more than US$42 billion of senior loans were guaranteed by Broadcom, and US$18 billion of subordinated debt was backed by Anthropic rent payments. A US portfolio manager focusing on technology stocks said: “The key thing is whether it can borrow money… If Anthropic can’t get an investment grade rating, borrowing costs will rise, which is not good for anyone.”
At present the three major credit rating agencies have not officially announced Anthropic Rating. The company has more than US$112 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and the market expects to raise about US$100 billion from its listing. However, long-term computing power expenditures still require continued financing.
OpenAI cuts valuation by $10 billion in fundraising target
OpenAI is also facing the test of investors being more selective about pricing. The Financial Times reported that the company’s latest fundraising target has been cut from US$30 billion to about US$20 billion, and its valuation has dropped from US$1.4 trillion to US$1.25 trillion.
Some investors have reduced their investment amounts, so the first round of deliveries are expected to raise less than US$20 billion. The money will then be raised from wealthy individual investors, and only then will the overall round size be closer to the target.
OpenAI raised US$122 billion in March this year, but its planned computing power expenditure is many times this amount. People familiar with the matter said that when the company began to raise funds, the AI investment environment was still hot, but the market had undergone rapid changes; Anthropic was about to go public, which also diverted investors’ money and attention.
The change in fundraising conditions does not mean that OpenAI has curbed purchases, but the price and speed of obtaining new funds will affect the margins for subsequent expansion.
Meta outlook turns negative, return on spend remains to be proven
S&P on Friday maintained Meta’s AA- credit rating, but changed its outlook to negative, reflecting an increase in the ratio of AI spending and debt relative to profitability and a potential decline over the next two years. Currently, the S&P is not actively considering an immediate decline. Even if it is downgraded by one level, Meta will still be a highly rated company.
Stamp estimates that Meta’s capital spending will reach US$140 billion this year and exceed US$225 billion next year. He believes the company’s ability to generate income through AI investments is limited compared to its peers. It is still unclear when the expenditure will bring in enough income to overcome the increase in costs.
A spokesperson for Meta responded, “We respect Stamp’s decision on Meta’s ability to generate revenue through AI, but do not agree with it,” and stressed that there are still big product and business opportunities in the future. Meta has disclosed more than $800 billion in future spending commitments, about half of which consists of leases that have not yet started, primarily for data centers and energy infrastructure.
All three companies have been unable to raise money, but their funding terms are under close scrutiny. Whether AI demand can be turned into sufficient income determines how much money investors are willing to pay and how much risk financial institutions are willing to take.
