AI summary
Summary of article:
The US AI investment craze continues to grow, but the Chinese AI stock listing boom has led to huge losses; Analysts believe that differences in business models, capital rotation and China’s economic weakness have combined to promote the differentiation of this wave of AI stocks.
The artificial intelligence (AI) topic is partly related to the competition between the United States and China for technological hegemony.anthropic Initial public offerings (IPOs) have brought new momentum to US AI stocks, leading to a boom in AI investment. Looking at Chinese AI stocks, the bubble may burst.
The US AI national team lineup includes: Anthropic,OpenAI AndGoogle On the Chinese side, DeepMind includes Moonshot AI, Z.AI, DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Alibaba.
So far, only one of these US AI companies has gone public, namely DeepMind (via parent company Alphabet). Chinese AI companies have taken the lead in providing channels for investment by pure AI cutting-edge model developers: In January this year, Z.ai and MiniMax were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The market responded enthusiastically in the early days of the listing. Z.ai’s stock rose 55% in its first month of trading, and MiniMax rose 33%, but quickly retreated. Minimax’s stock price peaked in March and has now halved to its IPO listing price; Z.ai performed slightly better, reaching a peak of 732% above its IPO price in June. Subsequently, the share price, along with Asian AI stocks, fell under selling pressure and fell 63% in less than a month. However, the increase so far this year is still 318%.
Financial Times columnist McFadden believes part of the problem lies in the business models of Chinese AI companies. American AI laboratories mainly rely on providing AI models to charge customers for use, while Chinese AI laboratories are more secure in providing AI models for free, but charge a fee based on the computing power used. This “open weight” model has increased competitive pressure in the United States and China, leaving investors concerned about a real question: will AI revenues be enough to cover the huge investments required to develop more powerful models?
McFadden explained that this symbolizes the boom and bust of the AI industry. China’s AI bubble has burst and dragged down China’s entire technology industry. The Hang Seng Technology Index, which tracks the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong, has fallen 30% this year. The MSCI China Index, whose constituent stocks include medium and large technology stocks and other stocks, has fallen 30% so far in 2026.
Gavekal Research analyst Jia Fu wrote: “The Chinese stock market has fallen for ten consecutive weeks so far, and the situation is unprecedented.” He pointed out that China’s AI bubble is still deflating, despite the support of two forces: First, the AI craze has boosted global stock markets; Second, China is one of the few markets outside the United States where AI shares have risen significantly.
Why did the AI bubble burst so soon after the Chinese stock market boom? One theory is that China’s stock market may be used as a cash machine by investors, in a “financial transaction” to buy South Korean and Taiwanese semiconductor stocks. Semiconductor stocks in Taiwan and South Korea “suck up all the oxygen in the room,” Jaffe said. He believes that until this wave of AI capital investment boom slows down, some funds can be expected to return to Chinese stocks.
However, in the final analysis, the economic slowdown and deflationary pressures are the root causes of the lack of momentum in Chinese stocks. From this perspective, China stocks still have room for further decline.
Summary FAQ
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Because Anthropic’s initial public offering is considered a new catalyst, the market’s enthusiasm for investment in the US AI industry has once again heated up, which shows that funds are still optimistic about the future development and liquidity of US AI companies.
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Z.ai and MiniMax saw surprise gains in the early days of their listing, but later retreated sharply. The main reasons include the lack of stable charging in their business model, the fading of the AI bubble, and the decline in overall Chinese stocks due to economic slowdown and deflationary pressure.
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Experts believe this reflects the prosperity and decline of the AI industry: the United States can better support evaluation by charging for model services, while China prefers to provide free models and monetize computing power. If revenues cannot cover heavy R&D expenses, the bubble will easily burst.
