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After the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, outsiders expect the United States’ China policy on Taiwan and the technology sector to become tougher. However, the discretion of the executive branch and negotiations between Trump and Xi Jinping may still maintain a delicate balance for some time.
Analysts said,democratic party Fromrepublican party Taking control of Congress could increase tensions between the United States and China over the Taiwan issue and also intensify technological competition between the two sides.
Kennedy, senior adviser and director of China trade and economic research at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that overall, a Democratic Party victory in the midterm elections could lead the United States to become more stringent in its China policy through hearings or legislation, especially with regard to economic security and Taiwan Strait issues, CNBC reported. However, any efforts “will be hampered by the broad discretion of the executive branch and China’s growing power and influence, and these factors cannot be easily reversed.”
George Chen, partner and co-head of digital business at The Asia Group, said Taiwan remains the most dangerous issue in US-China relations. “This is also the area where the Democratic-controlled Congress is most likely to challenge Beijing.”
“Congress has consistently shown its willingness to promote Taiwan-friendly initiatives, even if the U.S. government is more cautious about it,” he said.trump It will be more difficult to strike a balance between different situations.
Former US House Speaker Pelosi planned to visit Taiwan in 2022 while in office, angering Beijing. Hakeem Jeffries, who is expected to become the first African-American Speaker of the House of Representatives in United States history and is currently the Democratic House Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, meets with then-Chinese President Tsai Ing-wen in New York in 2023.
In addition, Chen Shu also said: “Washington is gradually forming a broad consensus that the United States should not let its technological leadership be used to enhance China’s military or strategic capabilities.” He also noted that the Democratic-controlled Congress may have more incentive to take stronger action.
“As a result, Beijing may find that even if Trump and Xi Jinping maintain relatively friendly relations through summit diplomacy, technology could still become a growing source of friction between the two sides,” he said.
US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to maintain the fragile truce through meetings in Shenzhen this month and Miami next month, before the new Congress takes office in January next year.
Wilder, executive director of the consulting firm Teneo, said via email that Trump, who has become a lame-duck president, is focusing on his personal accomplishments rather than the success of the Republican Party. Therefore, Trump can refuse to increase pressure on China and continue to pursue “strategic stability.”
Summary FAQ
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Analysts believe the most sensitive issues are the Taiwan issue and technological competition. The Democratic-led Congress could push for a tougher China policy through hearings or legislation, particularly on issues related to economic security and the Taiwan Strait.
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Because after the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, it may be more motivated to put pressure on Beijing through hearings and legislation, especially to take more active measures on Taiwan-friendly initiatives, economic security and technology export controls.
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The report pointed out that the two can first maintain a fragile truce through meetings this month and next month, but Trump, as a lame-duck president, cannot increase pressure on China, and the two sides may still turn technical issues into a new source of friction.
