Expert views/new trends in AI development after the US midterm elections

After the US midterm elections,democratic party Control over both houses of Congress not only affectstrump Government policies will also influence the direction of global artificial intelligence (AI) development in the next two years. AI is no longer just a tool for technological innovation, but a critical issue involving national security, economic competitiveness, social fairness, and human morality. In the future, US AI policy may shift from an emphasis on technological leadership and industrial regulation to a new phase that emphasizes both innovation and supervision.

The Trump administration has always attached great importance to the competitiveness of the AI ​​​​industry, advocating reducing administrative restrictions and encouraging companies to invest in large-scale language models, advanced chips and data centers to ensure the United States’ leading position in global technology competition, mainly due to China’s catchup.

In comparison, the Democratic Party is more concerned about issues such as privacy violations caused by AI, impact on employment, algorithmic discrimination, misinformation, and technology company monopoly. After the midterm elections, Congress may increase its oversight of AI policies, requiring technology companies to increase transparency, establish security assessment mechanisms, and assume related legal responsibilities.

However, Trump still has executive power and the presidential veto power, and passing comprehensive regulatory reforms may not be easy. Therefore, the United States may create a dual-track situation in the future in which the executive branch encourages technological innovation and Congress requires stronger oversight.

Although there are differences of opinion between the two parties on AI regulation in the United States, there is a high level of consensus between them on technological competition with mainland China. No matterrepublican party or the Democratic Party, all regard AI as a major technology affecting national security and international power structures.

Therefore, a change in Congressional power is not expected to lead to fundamental changes in US high-end chip export controls, semiconductor equipment restrictions, and key technology protections against China. Conversely, Congress could require the government to prevent the use of advanced AI technology in China’s military development.

On the other hand, China will also accelerate independent research and development of domestic chips, large-scale language models, and smart manufacturing. The greater the US sanctions, the stronger China’s drive to promote scientific and technological freedom.

In the long run, global AI may gradually create an English-language technology system dominated by the United States and a Chinese-language technology system dominated by China. Apart from technological competition, the two also have differences in cultural backgrounds, values ​​and governance models. However, there is still a need for exchange and cooperation between the two sides.

AI militarization will be a significant challenge to future international security. AI has been widely used in intelligence analysis, satellite image recognition, unmanned vehicles, network operations, and military decision-making support, which has greatly improved combat efficiency, but may also increase the risk of misjudgment and conflict escalation.

In the past, nuclear weapons created a “balance of terror” based on mutual destruction. In the future, AI may develop a new “equilibrium of AI deterrence”. Countries now compete not only for the number of weapons, but also for information processing speed, algorithmic capabilities, and battlefield decision-making efficiency.

Even if the Democratic Party strengthens AI regulation, it is unlikely to abandon military AI research and development. Therefore, the international community must adhere to the principle of “humans-in-the-loop” and ensure that humans still bear the ultimate responsibility for major decisions involving life and war. For the Taiwan Strait, although AI can improve early warning and defense capabilities, if it relies too much on automated decision making, it could lead to a crisis rapidly increasing due to wrong decisions.

The rapid development of AI has also created problems such as energy consumption, employment replacement, social inequality, and information distortion. In the future, in addition to pursuing technological breakthroughs, countries should also think about how AI can serve the public interest. In particular, AI ethics should not be completely dominated by Western technology companies or governments. Eastern Confucianism’s ideas of benevolence and righteousness, Taoism’s obedience to nature, and Buddhism’s sense of compassion can also provide important moral resources. The development of AI should not aim solely at efficiency or national competitive advantage, but its ultimate goals should be human dignity, public welfare, and world peace.

Taiwan plays an important role in the global semiconductor supply chain, but it cannot remain the only maker of advanced chips forever. Given the potential strengthening of AI supervision in the United States and the continued intensification of technological competition between China and the United States, Taiwan should actively participate in discussions on international AI safety standards, ethical norms, and governance systems. Especially in cross-Strait relations, AI can not only intensify military competition, but also be used in crisis warning, situation simulation, and peace research. Taiwan should combine its technological advantages and Chinese cultural resources to promote AI ethics dialogue among different civilizations.

After the US midterm elections, the global AI competition will gradually shift from a purely technical competition to a new stage that places equal emphasis on technology, security and ethics. The technological competition between China and the United States will not stop, and the threat of AI militarization will continue to grow. However, the international community cannot ignore the common interests of mankind. What will really determine the success or failure of future AI development is not just who has the most powerful algorithms, but who can establish a governance system that takes into account innovation, security, and human dignity. Technology should serve humans, not dominate them.