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Kagan pointed out that the US military’s consumption of missiles and troop deployment due to conflicts in the Middle East could make China and Russia think that the Trump administration is weak and could take advantage of the next two years to be more assertive in the Taiwan Strait and other areas.
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, warned:iran The war depleted the U.S. military’s missile inventory and squeezed Asian naval forces.trump Shock to mid-term elections, China andRussia You might think that Trump’s days are numbered and that he will become even more arrogant over the next two years.
Kagan said in an interview with CNBC that the United States has deployed three aircraft carriers to the Middle East, reducing the number of naval forces that can be deployed to Asia and potentially giving China more room to take stronger action in the region.
He said, “Everyone can see how depleted our inventory of interceptor missiles and missiles has been, and these weapons are particularly needed in the Asian theater.”
A report by the US Congressional Budget Office estimates that since June 2025, this conflict has eaten up two-thirds of the US military’s interceptor missile inventory, which is used primarily to assist Israel in defending against Iranian attacks. This may cause the United States to face inventory shortages in the next few years.
Kagan also raised questions on Trump’s attitude towards China. “I think the only thing Trump is interested in now is making economic and trade deals with China. I don’t think he really intends to confront China, but it will just make China behave more domineeringly,” he said.
Trump had approved a US$11 billion arms sale to Taiwan in December last year, but later postponed another US$14 billion arms sale, calling it a “bargaining chip” in talks with China.
Former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the military to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027, but he emphasized that this did not mean that Xi Jinping had decided to launch an invasion that year or at any time.
Kagan believes Trump’s post-election stance could influence the calculations of Beijing and Moscow. He said: “If everyone can see that Trump’s political career is limited and the United States can gradually return to normal – I don’t want to be too pretentious – both Russia and China may feel that they have to take advantage of the next two years to take action.”
The United States, China and Russia are currently discussing whether to arrange a trilateral summit between Trump, Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen this month.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said on Wednesday that Beijing was “maintaining communication with relevant parties regarding the meeting of the three heads of state” but had not yet announced the agenda. Putin reportedly proposed holding a trilateral summit with Trump and Xi Jinping in October to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not among the invitees.
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He pointed out that the United States’ deployment of three aircraft carriers to the Middle East has reduced naval forces available for use in Asia. Also, large quantities of interceptor missiles and related inventories have been consumed, significantly reducing the resources available in the Asian theatre.
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Kagan believes that if Beijing and Moscow decide that Trump’s political life is limited and the United States can gradually return to normal, they will feel they have to take action in the next two years, so they can act more arrogantly.
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The report noted that Trump gives more importance to reaching economic and trade agreements with China, there are doubts about his willingness to confront and he has used arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip. Furthermore, war in the Middle East wastes US military resources, which may lead Beijing to misjudge the US position.
