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Summary of article:
Kalshi’s Congress majority prediction market has generated a turnover of nearly 1.3 billion yuan, which is larger than the 2024 presidential election. Traders are currently optimistic that the Democratic Party will win the Senate. The betting tendencies of players in different industries also vary markedly.
Fox News exclusively reported on the 2nd that according to data obtained by Fox News Digital, a prediction market trading platform regarding whether majority control of Congress will change, online betting transactions on Kalshi have reached nearly 1.3 billion, which exceeds the scale of predictions of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. CNBC reported that Kalshi traders believedemocratic party 74% chance of winningmanagement committee .
Reports state that in the absence of a presidential election,midterm elections It was quite rare to see such a vibrant scene for online gambling in 2017.
Online betting differs from traditional surveys in that the forecast market fluctuates based on events such as candidate debates, fundraising, endorsements from powerful people, and breaking news. Therefore, forecasting markets have become a reference tool for various campaign teams and political observers to quickly interpret electoral changes.
Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in the Maine US Senate election received more money from players outside the state than from players in Myanmar, by about 61% to 36%, according to Kalshi Forum data.
In the Michigan U.S. Senate election, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed received more betting funds from out-of-state players than from Michigan players, approximately 65% to 49%.
The incident means online betting players in Myanmar and Missouri are less likely to bet on the victory of the two Democratic candidates, the report said.
The Kalshi platform launched the “Midterms Hub” in July this year, which combines real-time market odds, polling averages, fundraising data, historical election results and political news for the House of Representatives, Senate and gubernatorial elections.
According to the data, 67.9% of online gambling players with a background in law enforcement placed bets on Republican candidates, which is the highest rate of support for the Republican Party across all industries.
Online gambling players from the culture, arts and entertainment industries showed the strongest tendency to support the Democratic Party when placing bets, with approximately 60.1% of their funds wagered on Democratic candidates.
Additionally, online gamblers engaged in the mining, energy and chemical-related sectors bet approximately 62.6% of their funds on Republican candidates. Education sector players bet 58.3% of their funds on Democratic candidates.
As far as players serving the legal and electronics sectors are concerned, the bets on candidates from both the parties are almost equally divided.
Summary FAQ
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Kalshi’s trading volume on whether majority control of Congress will change has reached nearly 1.3 billion yuan, according to data obtained by Fox News Digital, which is larger than the market for predicting election results during the 2024 presidential election.
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CNBC reported that Kalushi traders believe Democrats have about a 74% chance of winning the Senate. The report also mentions that the prediction market will fluctuate in real-time with debates, fundraising, advocacy and breaking news.
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Players with law enforcement background are most biased towards the Republican Party, with approximately 67.9% of their funds betting on the Republican Party; Players in the culture, arts and entertainment industries are most biased towards the Democratic Party, with about 60.1% of their funds betting on the Democratic Party; The mining, energy, and chemical sectors are also more Republican-leaning.
