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The betting market has heated up after preliminary results of the US midterm elections and the prediction market show that the Democratic Party has an increased chance of capturing the House and Senate, which will cause US stock futures to turn negative and the dollar to weaken.
Early vote counting and prediction markets betting shows for the US midterm electionsdemocratic party Congress’s chances of victory in both the houses have increased.US stocks Futures lost gains and the dollar weakened. Election analysis agency Decision Desk Headquarters projects that Democratic Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is likely to be re-elected, returning the Democratic Party to control.management committee Probability of winning.
Nasdaq 100 futures originally rose 0.7%, then fell 0.3%; S&P 500 futures also gave up gains as much as 0.5%, giving up a fall of 0.2%.
The trading price of the prediction platform Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has about a 98% chance of winning the House of Representatives and about an 88% chance of winning the Senate. Another platform, Kalshi, showed that the Democratic Party’s chances of winning both houses of Congress increased to 86% from about 72% a few hours earlier. The market is betting that the Democratic Party’s chances of victory are increasing, which is also increasing the likelihood that the White House and Congress will scrutinize each other and make it difficult to advance the bill.
Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, said, “Tuesday’s election could change the distribution of power in Washington. It’s good that this matter has been resolved, because the market already expected the election to bring volatility.”
South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.8%, but Japan’s Topix fell 0.3%.
In the Georgia Senate race, Decision Desk Headquarters predicts that Ossoff, 39, will defeat Trump’s handpicked Republican Rep. Mike. Mike Collins. Ossoff is leading in pre-election surveys and has also benefited from Trump’s declining support there.
Rising fuel and food prices are the top concerns among Georgia voters. Ossoff criticized Collins for supporting Trump’s tariff policies and the Iran war, which have increased people’s cost of living. Collins followed Trump in the primaries but failed to establish a distinct profile from the president in the general election.
Ossoff has become a rising star in the Democratic Party due to his criticism of Trump’s use of the presidency to expand his wealth, and he is also considered a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election. If successfully re-elected, he will prove once again that he can be elected in swing states and further increase his national popularity and fundraising strength.
However, Ossoff promised to serve a full six-year term during the October debate and will not run for president in 2028.
Summary FAQ
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As early vote counts and prediction markets have shown that the Democratic Party’s chances of winning have increased, PolyMarket and Kalshi have significantly increased their chances of winning the House of Representatives and the Senate. Therefore the market believes that a blue wave may take shape.
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Both Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures first rose and then fell, reducing their original gains and leaving them lower; At the same time, the US dollar weakened, reflecting post-election policies and a reevaluation of the electricity distribution market.
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Decision Desk Headquarters predicts that Ossoff is expected to be re-elected, meaning the Democratic Party has a better chance of regaining control of the Senate; His victory in swing states will also help him gain national visibility and cement his future political influence.
