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Scholars at the symposium pointed out that Xi Jinping’s large-scale removal of high-level generals will not increase the likelihood of an invasion of Taiwan in the short term, but it will weaken the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to intervene in the political situation and respond to crises, and may affect the goal of building an army in 2027.
Scholar Ma Zhenkun said at a symposium today,Communist Party of China Leader Xi Jinping has launched a large-scale liquidation of high-level generals. Whether Xi Jinping intended it or not, there is a real impactPeople’s Liberation Army Loss of ability and power to intervene in political developments.
The Security Taiwan Society, a corporate legal person, held a symposium on “An Overview of the Situation after the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee: The Possible Development of the Situation within the CCP and Its Impact on Taiwan after the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee” at the Chang Wing-fat Foundation today.
The communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China confirmed that 33 people were expelled from the party, 16 of whom were military generals.
Ma Zhenkun, a professor at the Chinese Communist Party’s Institute of Military Affairs at the National Defense University, told the meeting that Xi has carried out a large-scale liquidation of high-level generals. At present, there are only six generals left in the People’s Liberation Army, namely Zhang Shengmin, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Defense Minister Dong Jun, Yang Zhibin, Commander of the Eastern Theater Command, Han Shengyan, Commander of the Central Theater Command, Zhang Shuguang, Secretary of the Military Discipline Inspection Commission, and Wang Gang, Commander of the Air Force.
Ma Zhenkun noted that among the only six generals left in the People’s Liberation Army, none of them are army generals who came from the military command system, and they do not have the family background of the CCP’s red generation or the second generation of high-ranking party, government and military officials.
He said that the primary job of the Central Theater Command is to protect important areas of the capital. Any important member of the Communist Party of China, as long as he has the support of the commander of the Central Theater Command, can call out troops to attack the capital. The current commander is Han Shengyan, who has an air force background. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has reduced the People’s Liberation Army’s ability and power to intervene and influence the political situation.
Ma Zhengkun said that since the founding of the Communist Party of China, communist troops have been seen when leaders have changed power or major incidents (such as the June 4 student movement) have occurred. Regardless of Xi’s intentions or not, the significant effect of the large-scale purge is that the People’s Liberation Army has lost its traditional ability and strength to intervene in political development. Forces intending to challenge Xi’s succession arrangements in the future have lost their link to the military for support.
Ji Zhong, an associate researcher employed by the National Defense Strategy and Resources Institute of the National Institute of Defense and Security, told the symposium that Xi Jinping has used anti-corruption as a pretext to carry out large-scale crackdowns on the People’s Liberation Army, especially military and aerospace systems, especially in the hardest-hit areas. His successor will inevitably have to re-examine existing goals and plans, and the centenary goal of establishing the army in 2027 may be affected.
Ji Zhong believes that the Communist army’s current regular operations can be maintained, but its ability to deal with unexpected major incidents will decline in the next three to four years. When trying to figure out what is better than telling the truth, they will adopt a more radical response method of “prioritizing left rather than right” to deal with crises, which may increase the risk of misjudgment of the situation.
What impact would the PLA’s massive elimination have on Taiwan? Ji Zhong pointed out that the possibility of Communist forces invading Taiwan would not increase in the short term, and the impact on normal activities around the Taiwan Strait would be limited. The most worrying thing is the wrong decision.
Summary FAQ
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Ma Zhenkun believes that after Xi Jinping removed high-level generals, the number of generals available in the army has greatly reduced, and most of them lack the background of the traditional military command system, resulting in the People’s Liberation Army losing the conditions and connections that intervened in politics during the change of power.
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The release confirmed that 33 people were expelled from the party, 16 of whom were military generals. Ma Zhenkun pointed out that there are currently only six generals left in the People’s Liberation Army, including Zhang Shengmin, Dong Jun, Yang Zhibin, Han Shengyan, Zhang Shuguang and Wang Gang, and the personnel in the army have been greatly affected.
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Ji Zhong believes that the probability of the Communist army invading Taiwan will not increase in the short term, and there will be no significant changes in normal activities. However, as the military is trying to figure out its intentions and is worried about saying the wrong thing, crisis management can be more radical. The most important thing to note is the risk of wrong decisions and escalating conflicts.
