Ogasawara Yoshiyuki: Green camp dominates the election and Taipei City should not draw sudden conclusions

When analyzing Taiwan’s county and mayoral elections, Professor Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, Honorary Chair of National Tsing Hua University, pointed out that although it is not appropriate for Taipei City to draw sudden conclusions at this time,Democratic Progressive Party With the advantage, it was possible to recapture Chiayi City, Changhua County, Yilan County, and New Taipei City.

Ogasawara Yoshiyuki revealed on Facebook today that he has accepted an exclusive interview with Japan’s “Sankei Shimbun” to analyze Taiwan’s county and mayoral elections next month. In the interview, he told that at present the Democratic Progressive Party has the upper hand.Kuomintang The situation facing adverse circumstances is gradually becoming clear. He also reported that the DPP is expected to win Chiayi City, Changhua County and Yilan County, as well as New Taipei City and Hsinchu County. However, he also believes that the DPP may lose its hold in Penghu County.

Ogasawara Yoshiyuki said that the New Taipei City mayor’s election is the biggest decisive battleground in this election. According to his observation, DPP candidate Su Qiaohui is gradually approaching KMT candidate Li Sichuan this year, and will be tied in the spring, and will have a slight lead after September.

He said that as long as the DPP wins New Taipei and one of the cities of Taipei, it will be a major victory. If the Kuomintang loses New Taipei City, even if it wins about 13 or 14 of the 22 county mayor seats, which is a majority in terms of numbers, it can still be said that the DPP will actually win.

As for Taipei City, which has attracted a lot of attention, Ogasawara Yoshiyuki believes that the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang has been holding out since September, and the two sides are already face to face. However, he also stressed that there is still a month left for the voting and it is not appropriate to draw any sudden conclusions. “But Shen Boyang, who is holding on all the way, has better speed.”

As for the reasons for the DPP’s rapid pace, Ogasawara Yoshiyuki analyzed that the Kuomintang adopted the strategy of exclusion from the central-level government and opposition attacks and defense, thereby delaying the passage of this year’s general budget until August. In addition, the deletion and withholding of the state secret fee gave rise to the mooncake purchase controversy. Voters believed that the opposition party’s actions were excessive and resentment gradually spread.

He believes that the KMT may be too steeped in the successful experience of winning last year’s general recall, but recall voting and general elections are completely different things. The DPP has adjusted the direction of its campaign and no longer makes high-profile advocacy of “opposing China and defending Taiwan”, but instead turns to local people’s livelihood issues to respond to voters’ life expectations.