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The latest research suggests that more than 50,000 people could die in the summer of 2026 due to high temperatures in 854 urban areas in 30 European countries, about two-thirds of which are related to climate change, with Southern Europe, Western Europe and the United Kingdom particularly affected.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the United Kingdom released news on the 23rd that a new study estimates that more than 50,000 people may die from heat-related causes in European urban areas in the summer of 2026, and about two-thirds of these deaths can be attributed to climate change. Relevant research papers have been published in the journal Nature Health.
The research was led by the school and Imperial College London. Researchers analyzedEuropean Union 27 member states and the UK,norway AndSwitzerland Temperature data and estimates of heat-related deaths for a total of 854 urban areas. The population of these areas is about 40% of the total population of the above 30 countries.
The study estimates that the number of heat-related deaths in these regions during the summer of 2026 will be the highest since 2000. Nearly one-third of this summer’s deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1, when the average daily temperature in the areas included was 5 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average.
The researchers reported that they used meteorological observations and climate models to compare actual temperatures with temperatures taking into account human-induced climate warming, and combined the relationship between temperature and mortality risk to estimate the number of heat-related deaths and the impact of climate change. These death tolls are the result of model projections and are not direct data on actual deaths. However, past experience shows that the estimates obtained by this method are generally close to statistical data released later by the health departments of different countries.
The research shows that temperatures are highest in southern and western Europe this summer and that heat-related mortality is projected to be high, but parts of northern Europe, which have had cooler summers in previous years, have also been significantly affected. The study estimates that around 4,500 people died from heat-related causes in the 135 UK urban areas included in the analysis.
Pierre Maslow, a researcher at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said there is growing evidence that European cities have still not fully adapted to rising temperatures and should increase their response capabilities through measures such as increasing urban green spaces, reducing pollution and providing medical services to affected populations.
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The research estimates that the number of heat-related deaths in European urban areas will exceed 50,000 in the summer of 2026, the highest number since 2000. The study also pointed out that the high temperature period from June 17 to July 1 accounted for almost a third of the total number of deaths over the entire summer.
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The research team compared actual temperatures to temperatures assumed to be unaffected by man-made warming, and then combined the relationship between temperature and death risk to come up with an estimate. Therefore, the estimated number of deaths is the result of a model rather than direct data. However, past experience shows that such estimates are usually close to later official figures.
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Researchers believe that European cities have not yet fully adapted to rising temperatures and should improve their resilience and protection against extreme heat by increasing urban green spaces, reducing pollution and providing more medical services and support to affected groups.
