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Although Trump expressed his desire to meet Kim Jong-un again, North Korea has not yet responded. Officials and experts in the United States and South Korea believe the chances of holding a Trump-Kim meeting at APEC and elsewhere this year have diminished significantly.
Reuters exclusively reported on the 23rd that the President of the United Statestrump is the only person who has ever been withnorth korea Although the US president who meets the leaders has always hoped to restart US-North Korea talks, Pyongyang has shown little interest in diplomatic talks to limit its nuclear program. Five people familiar with the matter said US and South Korean officials trust Trump and the North Korean leaderkim jong un This year the chances of meeting are decreasing.
Trump said in August that he planned to meet Kim Jong Un later this year and said that Kim Jong Un had responded to his contact. South Korea’s intelligence agency told members of Congress in late September that there was a 50% chance that Trump and Kim Jong-un would meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen from November 18 to 19.
However, on the 19th, Trump downplayed the possibility of the two meeting during the APEC summit or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held in the Philippines in November. “I got on very well with him and I’m not sure anyone would have asked to meet him,” she said.
The five people familiar with the matter include four people who have been briefed by senior US and South Korean officials and a South Korean official. He said the United States has not yet received any response from North Korea about holding a Trump-Kim meeting, and there is very little time left before the APEC summit. Another South Korean official familiar with the matter also said Pyongyang has shown no signs of preparing for a Trump-Kim meeting.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry and North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to inquiries. A White House official said, “The United States policy toward North Korea has not changed. President Trump remains willing to talk to Kim Jong Un without any preconditions. No meeting will be announced at this time. The two leaders will meet at an appropriate time.”
Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that the United States’ recent decision to reduce the scale of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea is still not enough to facilitate a meeting. He estimated that the probability of Trump and Kim Jong-un meeting during the APEC summit was less than 10%. “If Trump wants to meet with Kim Jong Un, I think North Korea is looking for an expensive public signal,” Panda said.
China maintains close ties with North Korea, and Washington has occasionally sought Beijing’s help in mediating U.S.-North Korea talks in the past. Although Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have had friendly talks in the past and the two sides plan to continue talks during the APEC summit, they have so far failed to make any breakthrough on the North Korea issue.
U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel said the Korea-U.S. said in. There is an event of the Chamber of Commerce in Seoul on the 21st. They do not know when Trump and Kim Jong-un will meet, but if the two sides can arrange a meeting, it will be announced suddenly. “If the meeting takes place, it could be the next day or even at a few days’ notice,” he said.
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Reuters quoted multiple people familiar with the matter as saying that the United States has not received a formal response from North Korea for the meeting, and Pyongyang has seen no signs of preparations. Therefore, US and South Korean officials believe that the chances of a Trump-Kim meeting this year are decreasing.
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South Korea’s intelligence agency told members of Congress in late September that the probability of a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen from November 18 to 19 was about 50%, but the latter did not develop in that direction.
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Panda, a senior fellow at Carnegie, believes that reducing the scale of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea is not enough to influence North Korea, and North Korea may need to issue costly public signals to Trump, so he estimates that the success rate will be less than 10%.
