Fed Governor Waller sounded the alarm in December, raising the possibility of a 2-point interest rate increase.

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Summary of article:

Fed Governor Waller said that if the CPI does not decline significantly in October, the December meeting may consider raising interest rates by 2 percentage points at a time to maintain the credibility of suppressing inflation.

Christopher Waller, the heavyweight governor of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), said on the 10th that he supports the Fed raising interest rates in December; He also warned that ifinflation Continuing to be bullish, he will support raising interest rates 2 yards at a time to protect the credibility of the Fed. They also linked their policy recommendations to the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released today (10th).

After Waller’s speech, the market now has 100% expectation that interest rates will rise by 1% in December.

Waller said in a speech in London that the US economy is strong and the labor market is healthy, but inflation is still very high. His speech on Tuesday was the most “disgusting” statement ever made by a Fed policymaker. Not only did he advocate that interest rates should be raised in December, but the rate of increase was even higher than the 1% expected by the market.

Waller said, “If, as I expect, the inflation rate for the latest month (October) improves, I am willing to support a 1-yard increase in interest rates. But if the October CPI increase announced later today is similar to the past two months, with core CPI monthly increases of about 0.3% or more, then a stronger policy may be needed. In this case, I believe the policy at the December meeting A 2-yard increase in rates should be considered.” Economists expect core CPI to rise 0.2% in October.

Waller also said that under this scenario, a traditional 1-digit rate increase would be very small, “and it is hard to believe that the Fed is dealing with inflation.” He explained that “Raising interest rates by just one point would jeopardize our credibility, which is a risk I am not willing to take.”

Summary FAQ


  • Waller clearly supports the Fed raising interest rates in December because he believes that the US economy is still strong and the labor market is healthy, but inflation is still very high, so policy needs to be continuously tightened.


  • If October’s CPI is similar to the previous two months, especially if the monthly increase of core CPI is about 0.3% or more, Waller believes that 1 percentage point alone may not be enough, and a 2-point interest rate hike in December should be considered.


  • They believe that if inflation is still hot, an interest rate increase of 1 point will be too light to convince the market that the Fed is handling inflation seriously, which will jeopardize the Fed’s policy credibility.

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