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The survey of New Taipei City mayors shows that the support gap between Su Qiaohui and Li Sichuan is only 3 percentage points. Blue and green match evenly. The 19% of voters who have not expressed their opinion will be the key to the final result.
This is the latest update on the New Taipei City mayoral election from the United Daily Newsvoting discover,Democratic Progressive Party Su Qiaohui and the Kuomintangli sichuan The blue and green parties are evenly matched, with 42% and 39% support from voters respectively; Both have equal chances of winning the election. 37% of voters are optimistic about Li Sichuan’s election, 36% think Su Qiaohui has a good chance of winning, and 19% of undecided voters will determine the final outcome of the election.
Three people are competing in the New Taipei City mayoral election. In addition to Li Sichuan from the Kuomintang, Su Qiaohui and Su Huihuang from the Democratic Progressive Party, who are not party members, are in the running. The survey found that 69% of New Taipei voters are worried about the mayoral election, and 25% are not worried. Among them, 80% of Su Qiaohui’s supporters are worried about the election, higher than 76% of Li Sichuan’s supporters.
If they vote tomorrow, the New Taipei election situation is currently at a standstill. 42% of voters support Su Qiaohui and 39% of voters support Li Sichuan. The difference between the two sides is within the limits of sampling error. Su Huihuang’s votes are not high, support is less than 1%. 19% of voters have not yet decided whom to vote for. How to attract stray votes is the focus of the final effort for both parties.
Cross-sectional analysis found that there was a clear difference in support for Su Qiaohui and Li Sichuan between voters of both genders. Li Sichuan received 46% support among male voters, 7 percentage points ahead of Su Qiaohui. Su Qiaohui was more popular among female voters, with 44% support, ahead of Li Sichuan by 12 percentage points.
Looking at age differences, Su Qiaohui received 41% support among voters aged 40 to 59 and those over 60, comparable to Li Sichuan’s 38%. Among voters under 40, 44% supported Su and 40% supported Li, and the two were evenly matched.
Looking at parliamentary constituencies, Su Qiaohui has the lead in Luzhou Sanchong and Shulin Yingge Tucheng Three Gorges regions, both with 47% support, 14 to 17 percentage points ahead of Li Sichuan; Li is the greater favorite in the Sichuan Xindian and Zhongyonghe regions, with support more than 10 percentage points ahead of Su Qiaohui; As for the Banqiao region, 36% support Li and 42% support Su, with Su having a slight advantage.
In terms of differences in political party leanings, 86% of KMT supporters support Li Sichuan, while 91% of DPP supporters support Su Qiaohui. The blue-green base is almost posterior; 82% of People’s Party supporters support Li Sichuan, while only 10% support Su Qiaohui; Among neutral voters, Li and Su are evenly split with support levels of 29% and 31% respectively, and 39% are still waiting to see.
Looking at the pace of victory, 37% of voters are optimistic about Li Sichuan’s election, 36% are optimistic about Su Qiaohui, and 27% of voters cannot predict who will be elected. Among neutral voters, 25% are optimistic that Li will win, 25% think Su has a good chance of being elected, and 50% are unable to decide who will win.
In terms of favorability, 42% of voters like Su Qiaohui, 25% do not like it, and 33% have no opinion. For Li Sichuan, 38% of voters like it, 24% do not like it, and 38% have no opinion. Both people have the same liking rating.
In terms of political performance, 43% of voters are satisfied with Li Sichuan’s performance since entering politics, while 16% are dissatisfied; While Su Qiaohui’s political performance is 41% satisfied and 21% dissatisfied. About 40% of the voters of both of them are unable to evaluate their political performance.
As for whose municipal vision is more attractive, 31% of voters agreed with Su Qiaohui, 28% agreed with Li Sichuan, the two were evenly split, and 40% had no opinion.
The survey was conducted from 1 to 7 November, successfully interviewing 1,114 adults registered in New Taipei City, and 261 people declined to be interviewed; At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error was within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. The survey uses residential and mobile phone dual telephone records of New Taipei City as the basic population for the random sample. It improves the shortcomings of the traditional local phone sample by only adding a sample of households with mobile phones that are not accessible for local calls. It is weighted according to the gender and age structure of voters over the age of 20 in New Taipei City. The source of funding for the survey is Lianhe Bao.
Summary FAQ
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Polls show Su Qiaohui from the Democratic Progressive Party has 42% support and Li Sichuan from the Kuomintang has 39% support. The difference between the two falls within the range of sampling error, indicating that the current election situation is quite deadlocked.
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There are still 19% of voters who have not yet decided who to vote for, making them a major group that influences the final outcome. Opinion polls indicate whether both parties can weed out this group of stray votes that will determine the final outcome.
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The blue and green bases are almost in the same line, with Kuomintang supporters mostly supporting Li Sichuan and Democratic Progressive Party supporters mostly supporting Su Qiaohui. The winning figures are also close, with 37% optimistic about Li and 36% optimistic about Su, with very little difference.
