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US employment data for October was better than expected across the board, with non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, wages and the labor force participation rate all showing strong performances, leading the market to believe the Federal Reserve is more likely to resume raising interest rates in December.
The US labor market rebounded strongly in October, as employment numbers showed,unemployment rate Wage growth and labor participation rates “top four” prosperity. The number of non-farm employment increased by 165,000 from September, more than expected. Employment numbers also improved slightly in September. The unemployment rate declined, workers’ desire to find employment continued to increase, and wages rose. Economists believefederal Reserve (The Fed) is more likely to resume raising interest rates in mid-December, with the 10-year government bond yield rising 3 basis points to 4.88%.
The increase in non-farm employment in October was 165,000, up from 60,000 in September (the original number was 29,000) and an estimated increase of 70,000. The number of people in August and September was also revised up to 84,000, of which September was revised up by 31,000 and August was revised up by 53,000. Employment growth averaged 137,000 per month from August to October, significantly higher than the 79,000 increase from July to September.
Private sector employment rose by 159,000 in October, well below estimates of 65,000 and above a rise of 78,000 in September. The manufacturing sector added 19,000 workers, better than expected by 7,000 and up from a 13,000 increase in September.
Average hourly earnings increased significantly by 0.4% compared to September, which was better than forecast and increased by 0.3% in September; It rose 3.1% from the same period last year, which was better than the expected 2.9% increase and the 3% rise in September. Average weekly working hours were 34.4 hours, unchanged from September and in line with estimates.
The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, below the forecast of 4.2%. The labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 61.9%, above the expected 61.8%. It was the third consecutive month of increases, indicating that labor supply continued to improve. However, the underemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 7.9%, indicating a jump in the number of part-time workers.
Economists say inflation could increase further in October due to employment growth and rising oil prices; If employment remains solid in November, the Fed will resume raising interest rates in mid-December and will raise interest rates further early next year. The entire rate hike cycle could be huge.
Summary FAQ
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Non-farm employment rose by 165,000 in October, more than expected by 70,000 and much better than the revised 60,000 in September, indicating a strong rebound in the US labor market in October.
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The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%; The labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, increasing for the third consecutive month, indicating that more people have returned to the job market, but the underemployment rate has also increased.
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As employment, wages and participation rates are all strong, economists believe that inflationary pressures may resume, and the Fed is more likely to resume raising interest rates in mid-December, and may continue to raise interest rates into early next year.
