Trump faces crushing defeat in mid-term elections Axios: All three paths difficult in US-Iraq war

trump The President has acknowledged that the United Statesiran The war left the Republican Party in the lurchmidterm elections Having paid a heavy price, it must now decide whether to cut losses and reach a compromise, or double down and launch another bombing campaign. However, all the options they encountered were problematic, and there was no simple and clean way to “get the job done” in Iran.

Axios reported that Trump has said for weeks that he would end the war after the election, no matter what. A former Trump adviser said, “It’s one thing to lose the midterm elections, but Trump doesn’t want to look like the guy who lost twice.”

The first option is to launch an attack, but returning to war would be extremely unpopular, would not only keep gas prices high, but would also fail to achieve better military results. The other option is negotiations, but if Iranian officials feel that Trump is in a weak position after suffering a political setback, it will be difficult for Trump to reach an agreement.

Ultimately, what allies call “tightening Iran’s neck” means maintaining the status quo, continuing to impose a naval blockade and severe economic sanctions, allowing the Iranian regime to “slowly rot” while continuing to test Iran’s willingness to reach an agreement. However, it may take several months to see progress with this approach.

Vice President Vance issued an extraordinary statement on the morning of the 4th, clearly stating that the Republican Party’s defeat in the midterm elections was caused by the war, and pointed out that the relationship between the United States and Israel is a huge political burden for the Republican Party. Trump told reporters that Vance’s analysis was “almost right” because the war had raised gas prices, but that he would do it again if necessary: ​​”We have no choice. You can’t let Iran have nuclear weapons.”

Axios reported that Vance’s statement also requires Trump to incorporate new political considerations into his decision-making, and even his closest allies are unsure what he will do next. The US military is completing preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale operations in Iran, including sending additional military forces to the Middle East, US officials said. Meanwhile, regional sources said Qatari mediators are working to win support from the United States and Iran for a draft agreement to avoid a return to war and could resume direct talks in the coming days.

A person familiar with the matter said arbitrators had asked White House officials before the election what they would do if Trump lost the election, but Trump advisers were unsure. “We told everyone that we want to see first of all what impact the election results have on us,” a US official said.

Iranian officials celebrated Trump’s election defeat and claimed it showed Iran was winning the war. Diplomats, Trump advisers and Middle East experts involved in the mediation said Iran’s arrogant attitude could push Trump to resume war.

Ali Waze, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, said: “Tehran could mistake Trump’s political weakness for military weakness and then move on. But the sensible approach is to negotiate a deal while Washington still wants to reach an agreement.”