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Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump said he was in no rush to use force again against Iran and maintained three options: diplomatic, military and economic pressure. Progress was also made in US-Iran talks with the mediation of Qatar.
US midterm elections have always been viewed as presidentialtrump Deciding whether to carry out massive bombingsiran A turning point in the effort to end the war. However, Trump isvote A day earlier, in an exclusive phone interview with Axios on the 2nd, he said there was “no rush” in deciding whether to resume military operations against Iran.
Trump said in an exclusive interview: “No matter what happens, we will take action, but we will not do it too quickly. We have hit them hard economically. They have no money, no gas, and people are becoming more and more intolerable to this situation.”
At least for now, it seems Trump will still pursue a dual-track diplomatic and military strategy. On one hand he will prepare for a new war after the talks break down and on the other hand he will continue the talks. However, he also knows that the prospects for reaching an agreement are still uncertain. He explained that “We are in talks with them and the progress is not bad,” but that the problem is that Tehran “keeps trying to pull us away. The urgency on the Iranian side is less than you think, but they want to compromise now more than ever.”
Regional sources revealed that Qatari mediators have drafted a draft agreement and proposed three-day mutual confidence measures to be implemented sequentially to induce the United States and Iran to resume direct talks. Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi went to Tehran on the 2nd to continue negotiations on the draft agreement. A diplomat familiar with the matter said Qatari mediators were awaiting responses from the United States and Iran and that talks were slowly progressing.
A few hours after the interview ended, Trump posted on actual social media: “Oil prices are falling like a stone, down almost $10 a barrel, setting a record, because people think there will be no war with Iran. Iran hopes to reach an agreement as soon as possible. It can happen!”
Iran’s civilian leadership also expressed optimism over the prospects of reaching an agreement on the 2nd. President Massoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei “has given the government some authority” to try to reach an agreement through diplomatic channels.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said diplomatic contacts between the two sides “have become very intensive.” He said Qatar and Pakistan were actively mediating and Tehran had put forward conditions and plans. Everything depends on whether Washington is “politically rational.” If the United States chooses a genuine diplomatic approach, Iran is willing to engage. However, if the United States attempts to deceive or take military action, it will face a more painful and severe counterattack than in the past.
Araqchi pointed out that if the United States accepts Tehran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, “negotiations will resume”, otherwise the status quo will continue and Iran will not surrender.
Axios also reported that Trump is considering three action plans, each with support from different camps. The first thing to do is to reach an agreement. Vice President Vance and White House special envoy Steve Witkoff are urging Trump to move in this direction, because resuming the war may not make the situation better. Sources said that most Gulf countries support this stance and have expressed the same opinion to Trump.
The second is to return to the battlefield. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US Defense Secretary Jesus both expect military operations to resume. His argument is that Iran is not trustworthy. They cannot trust that Iran will reach an agreement, let alone that it will abide by it. Therefore, Trump must use military means to accomplish the task.
The third type is extreme economic pressure. The sources said US Treasury Secretary Besant, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Rubio all recommended that Trump maintain the status quo of “no war, no deal” and continue to put economic pressure on Iran. A person with direct knowledge of the matter said Ratcliffe told Trump that long-term economic pressure would force Iran to make more concessions or increase domestic unrest and incite people to revolt. The CIA declined to comment.
Summary FAQ
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Trump said he was in no rush to decide whether to use force against Iran again, emphasizing that the United States has seriously harmed Iran through economic sanctions and that he believed he could still negotiate while maintaining military options.
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The three options are to reach an agreement, return to the battlefield, and continue extreme economic pressure; Supporters vary, including Wan and Wyckoff who prefer negotiations, Netanyahu and Jesus advocating the use of force, and Besant and others preferring to maintain the status quo.
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Qatari mediators have spent three days drafting mutual confidence measures and have gone to Tehran for consultations. America and Iran are waiting for the answer. Iranian officials also said that diplomatic contacts were very intense and that talks could resume if the United States accepted the terms.
