China threatens to block Taiwan’s energy think tanks: Two sets of scripts exposed to lock out most-risky platforms in 2028

Washington The think tank “Atlantic Council” published an analysis by its senior researcher Joseph Webster on the 2nd, reporting that China is preparing to impose an energy blockade against Taiwan. Influenced by factors such as economic, political, military and energy supply, 2028 to 2029 may be the period of greatest risk. United States reverses blockade of China as China’s energy independence improvesOil Working out an import strategy can be difficult. To deter Beijing, the United States and its allies should help Taiwan strengthen its energy security, with a particular emphasis on installing diesel power generation and storage systems in northern Taiwan to prevent the capital, Taipei, from falling into a power outage crisis.

The report said Beijing could adopt two methods to cut off Taiwan’s energy supply. The first is to impose a “quarantine-style blockade”, allowing some ships to pass but using the Coast Guard to stop oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, claiming this is domestic law enforcement rather than an act of war, and may even block Taiwan entirely. The second is to take advantage of or deliberately trigger the oil crisis in the Middle East to influence Taiwan and other regional competitors through rising oil prices.

Taiwan’s oil, natural gas and coal are almost entirely imported by sea, and the proportion of self-generated energy will decline from 8.3% in 2016 to 5.3% in 2025. According to data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs in March 2026, oil, coal and liquefied natural gas reserves can support 150 days, 40 days and 11 days, respectively. Japan and South Korea also face energy reserve constraints and may not be able to fully support Taiwan during a crisis.

In contrast, China has mitigated energy supply risks by electrifying vehicles, increasing crude oil production and expanding onshore pipeline imports and oil reserves. The report estimates that even if China faces an oil import blockade, it can still maintain civil and military activities for at least 150 days, and this is likely to increase to more than 200 days in 2030.

The report states that Taiwan’s economic growth rate is projected to reach 11% in 2026. Conversely, China’s economic slowdown and severe debt problems could widen the gap in living standards between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, making reunification less attractive to Taiwanese voters. Xi Jinping will turn 75 in 2028 and so may be even more eager to take action.

Presidential elections will be held in Taiwan in January 2028. If the economy continues to grow, the report believes the Democratic Progressive Party could remain in power and even gain more than half the seats in the Legislative Yuan, which would displease Beijing. The United States will also hold presidential elections in November of the same year, and domestic political conflicts in the United States may distract Washington from the Taiwan Strait.

Additionally, Taipower estimates that the nightly backup capacity rate will drop to about 8% in 2028 and 2029, far below the target of 15%. If U.S. forces remain deployed in theaters such as Iran for a long period of time, it could weaken its war preparedness capabilities; If the US gains a lead in artificial intelligence (AI) that is difficult to achieve, it could also prompt Xi Jinping to take preemptive action against Taiwan.

The report suggests that the United States should help prevent China from crippling Taiwan’s energy facilities through cyber attacks, physical sabotage, and even criminal organizations. On the other hand, China also has weaknesses, including food security concerns, its steel industry’s dependence on Australian iron ore, and its economy’s heavy reliance on exports. China’s net exports contributed 32.7% to GDP growth, a new high since 1997. Once Beijing blockades Taiwan, the United States and its allies could use economic, financial, and cyber measures to restrict China’s access to export markets, which would put pressure on its economic, social, and even political stability, thereby preventing Beijing.

The report recommends that Taiwan expand natural gas, renewable energy and nuclear power production, and cooperate with the United States and Japan to restore operation of a third nuclear power plant in 2028. However, the most important thing is to promote the strategy of “diesel in the north, renewable energy in the south”. Since Northern Taiwan is highly dependent on “south-to-north electricity transmission”, if transmission lines are damaged during the Taiwan Strait crisis and natural gas reserves are limited, Taipei could face a power shortage in less than a month.

The report estimates that approximately US$10 billion will be invested to install a 2 million kilowatt-hour diesel power generation and reserve system in northern Taiwan. Even if power supply is cut off in the south, hospitals, telecommunications and emergency services can still continue for about five months. The first phase of deployment will be completed in summer 2027 at the earliest, and full construction will be completed from 2028 to 2029. The central and southern regions should reduce electricity rationing, as well as increase fuel reserves and renewable energy, to expand Taiwan’s ability to withstand energy disruptions lasting from weeks to months.